Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Spurs Draft Preview

(The post below is an expanded version of a draft preview published at RealGM.com.)

Even championship teams need to reload, and the Spurs are no exception. The Spurs are the oldest team in the NBA, and have to start looking towards a youth movement, especially on the perimeter. Backup point guard Beno Udrih was never able to find a groove with the Spurs coaching staff, averaging a career-low 37% shooting in mostly mop up duties. Jacque Vaughn isn’t the long term answer as Parker’s backup, and their wing players are mostly in their twilight years, including Brent Barry (35), Bruce Bowen (36) and Michael Finley (34). (Of course, we said the same thing last year, and they benefitted from not pulling the trigger on a midseason trade.)

Retaining the services of Michael Finley and Oberto (who just opted out but is expected to return) in free agency is a must, but the Spurs have to become younger and more athletic through the draft. While they’ve proven that they can win with their current formula, the Spurs’ front office is well aware that they need a young, bullish 3-4 hybrid player to put out on the floor when they want to go small (rumors had circled about the Spurs trading for Corey Maggette all season). Bowen and Ginobili have difficulties guarding bigger small forwards such as Carmelo Anthony and Bonzi Wells, but the Spurs are usually able to overcome the size mismatches with team defense.

Rookie James White, a highlight reel type of player picked up midseason of 06-07, could be the long term answer at the small forward slot, but the Spurs need more than one player to mold for the future. The list below is compiled taking into consideration how likely the player is to be available around the 28th pick, so Oden and Durant won't be on there (it's not a wish list, but a practicality one). Most fill positions of need and have intangibles the Spurs organization would like. So, without further ado...

The Silver and Black's Top Ten 2007 Draft Prospects

1.) Marco Belinelli, Italy >
It would be a surprise if Belinelli got by Phoenix at no. 24, but if he drops the Spurs shouldn’t pass him up. He could ultimately supplant Brent Barry in the lineup with his outside shooting and heady playmaking abilities. He’ll probably play more off guard in the NBA, but has the ballhandling and passing savvy of a point guard. Maybe the best sniper the draft has to offer (the Spurs love long distance shooters), but he’s also a solid athlete who will take it to the rim. Probably won't contribute immediately, but could be a solid 6th man two seasons from now.

Watch Belinelli Video

2.) Morris Almond, Rice

Almond is a pure scorer, but his high basketball IQ is what could help him fit in nicely on the Spurs. He gets to the line, finishes at the basket, and knocks down contested shots. If he can adjust to being a role player rather than “the man”, he could be a steal at #28. Having an explosive scorer like Almond could allow the Spurs to move Ginobili back into the starting lineup over time, a role Ginobili performs better in. Almond’s off-court characteristics…he’s intelligent, well spoken, and a team player…make him a great candidate to pair with the likes of Duncan and Popovich.

3.) Rudy Fernandez, Spain

Everyone is looking for the next Manu Ginobili, and Fernandez is only this far down the list because the odds are he'll be snagged around 19-24. A solid overall talent with a great first step, Fernandez is well liked for his ability to improve in almost every facet of his game. A great 1-on-1 and open court player, so the Warriors (pick 18) and Suns (pick 24) could have a lot of interest. Fundamentally sound, but still uses his explosive athleticism and offensive creativity to get around defenders. Can be a little careless at times, but so was Manu coming into the league.

Watch Fernandez Video

4.) Petteri Koponen, Finland

A crafty, tall point guard with eyes in the back of his head, Koponen could be everything that Spurs have been missing in the backup PG slot. Originally slated to be a second round pick, Koponen has apparently dazzled scouts at workouts and camps, perhaps warranting a late first round pick (if he does drop, the Spurs own pick #33 as well). Even though slight of frame, Koponen has got guts, and should be receptive to the tough attitude of the Spurs’ coaching staff. Whether he or Gabe Pruitt is drafted will dictate the fate of current backups Beno Udrih and Jacque Vaughn.

Watch Koponen Video 1
Watch Koponen Video 2

5.) Alando Tucker, Wisconsin

Tough, rugged perimeter guy that could contribute right away (not that the Spurs would need him to). Tucker's a mature player that could develop a great NBA midrange game over time, and has potential to be a decent three point shooter. He won't be the scorer he was in college, but he's the type of guy that can adapt to become a defensive specialist in the NBA, like a Lindsay Hunter or Raja Bell. There will never be a Bruce Bowen-like talent coming out of the draft, which makes it hard to replace a guy like Bowen. Bowen's skill set is built on work ethic, desire, and practice, not simply talent. That being said, Tucker seems to have the drive and tools to become a good defender in the NBA, and he's already worked out with the Spurs.

Watch Tucker Video

6.) Derrick Byars, Vanderbilt

He'll probably come off the board before the Spurs pick, but he could slide. A "total package" kind of guy with a nice touch from the perimeter and a great ability to get to the rim, Byars was the SEC player of the year in a league that featured a few notable guys from Florida. Has a high IQ and is a great ballhandler. Coach Popovich and company would need to instill some defensive discipline in him to make sure he's more than just a scorer at the next level. Lanky, athletic wing guys are all the rage in the league right now, abd Byars fits the bill.

Watch Byars Video

7.) Jared Dudley, Boston College

Slow as mud on the perimeter, so he could be a defensive liability. He's tough as nails inside though, and plays with heart night in night out. He could be the 3-4 Bonzi, Carmelo, Josh Howard type of guy the Spurs could use in their small lineups, taking pressure off of the likes of Bowen, Manu, and Finley. The only question is whether his defensive shortcomings would nullify his interior presence on a team this defensive-minded.

8.) Aaron Afflalo, UCLA

Like Tucker, Afflalo is an experienced player that will look towards defense to find his place in the league. Also, like Tucker, Afflalo should be around in the mid to late 20's and has already worked out for the Spurs. He is a smart, tough player that can easily transition from being a star in college to being a role player on an NBA club. Not a great 1-on-1 talent, so he'll have to invest some time in his jump shot to be a good offensive contributor. That being said, he's shown every indication that he'll do what it takes to improve.

Watch Afflalo Video

9.) Reyshawn Terry, North Carolina

People have been very high on Terry as of late, but the Spurs will always be tentative to draft a guy who has trouble keeping his head in the game. Despite his focus issues, Terry is a defensive gem: long, instinctive, tough and quick. He won't contribute much offensively, despite his athleticism, but could carve himself a place in the league on his defensive talents alone. That being said, he'll have to make sure he can do it for a full 48 minutes, rather than showing up from time to time.

Watch Terry Video

10.) Gabe Pruitt, USC

If the Spurs look for a backup PG, rumors are that it will be Koponen or Pruitt. Pruitt is more NBA ready, while Koponen may not even come over from Europe this coming year. However, the Spurs still have Beno Udrih on the roster for another year, and could bring back Jacque Vaughn, who was consistent on both ends of the court on their way to the 2007 championship this season. If they choose to bring Vaughn back, they won't want a 4th point guard on their roster, and may decide to draft Koponen. Otherwise, they could draft Pruitt, a quick, smart point, to fill in behind Parker immediately. Pruitt isn't a "true" point guard yet, but should be able to adapt to become a playmaker at the next level. His jumper is questionable and he needs to work on his point guard instincts, rather than penetrating at every opportunity.

Watch Pruitt Video

Submit your own list under the comments section, or email at elliot.cole@yahoo.com

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